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Research suggests that UK's coronavirus crisis peaked BEFORE lockdown


The UK's Covid-19 outbreak may have been under control before lockdown was enforced, according to a study that once again throws into question whether the draconian measures were ever needed. 

Data modelling by a mathematician at Bristol University suggests the spread of Covid-19 throughout the UK had peaked days before Boris Johnson introduced the unprecedented curbs.  

The calculation is based on a growing body of data that indicates the average Covid-19 victim dies 23 days after being infected.

The darkest days in the UK's outbreak were on April 8 and 9, when more than 2,000 people passed away from the virus, official figures show. 

Professor Simon Wood believes most of these patients were infected between March 18 and 19 - 23 days earlier - and five days before the country locked down.

He claims that banning large gatherings and telling people to keep two metres apart  would have been sufficient to keep the virus under control. 

The study throws into question whether Britain's lockdown was needed amid claims social distancing policies announced on March 16 curbed the crisis on their own.

It comes after similar research in Norway also found the spread of the virus fell fairly quickly there by the time people were ordered to stay at home.

Camille Stoltenberg, head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), even admitted last month that locking down was unnecessary. 

Professor Wood said: 'The most notable feature of the results is that fatal infections are inferred to be in substantial decline before lockdown.'

He said it was possible that social distancing 'might have done the trick' in bringing down Covid-19 cases and deaths without heavy-handed measures.  

Commenting on the findings, Professor Carl Heneghan - a leading expert at the University of Oxford and staunch critic of the lockdown - said Professor Wood's analysis was in line with data from the Royal College of GPs (RCGP).